40-50 seats of Bihar elections 2025 where the result can change in the blink of an eye

Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 is at its peak and now everyone’s eyes are on those seats where the result can change at any moment. Exit polls and ground reports are showing that the contest on about 40-50 assembly seats is so tough that only a difference of 3,000 to 5,000 votes will decide the fate of a candidate. Let us know about those major seats, where politics can change in the blink of an eye.

1. Raghopur (Vaishali): Lalu’s legacy vs BJP’s challenge

• Tejashwi Yadav vs Satish Kumar Yadav, Bihar’s most high-profile fight. Tejashwi has won from this seat twice in a row, but in 2010, Satish Kumar defeated Rabri Devi. This time 68.54% voting took place, in which women’s participation was at a record level. Despite the Yadav-Muslim vote bank, BJP’s performance here has been strong.
• Probable result: Tejashwi ahead, but margin could be 10-15 thousand votes.

2. Tarapur (Munger): Samrat Chaudhary’s credibility vs RJD’s ground hold.

• Deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary is in the fray after 15 years. This seat is a mix of Kushwaha, Yadav, upper caste and Muslim votes, which reverses the mathematics every time. Exit polls show Samrat leading, but the margin is very small.
• Possible result: Difference of 5,000-10,000 votes, seat can go either way.

3. Mokama (Patna): Hottest seat of ‘Bahubali vs Bahubali’

• This seat remains in the headlines in every election. Anant Singh (JDU) is in jail, but his support base remains intact. Veena Devi (RJD) is a former MP and is dependent on her husband’s network. In 2020, Anant Singh had won by only 4,718 votes.
• Likely outcome: 3,000–5,000 vote difference, head-to-head contest.

4. Mahua (Samastipur): Tej Pratap’s insistence on ‘returning’ vs RJD’s dominance

• Tej Pratap Yadav is in the fray from his new party Janashakti Janata Dal (JJD). In 2020, Mukesh Roshan (RJD) had won here, whereas in 2015, Tej Pratap had won the same seat. This contest has become a symbol of the new politics of RJD versus Yadav family.
• Possible result: Very close contest, Tej Pratap’s party may lose votes.

5. Danapur (Patna): High-profile battle of ‘Yadav vs Yadav’

• Ramkripal Yadav (BJP) vs Reetlal Yadav (RJD), Reetlal is currently in jail, but won in 2020 by 15,924 votes. BJP is calling it a fight of “clean image vs criminal tag”.
• Possible result: Difference of 10-15 thousand votes, the direction of the wind will be decided in the last hours.

6. Gaya Town (Gaya): Prem Kumar’s challenge

• Prem Kumar (BJP) has been MLA for 8 consecutive times, but this time Axis My India has called it a ‘close contest’. Congress and Jan Suraj are trying to break into the traditional vote bank of BJP here.
• Probable Result: Light advantage for Prem Kumar, but the situation is exciting.

7. Alinagar (Darbhanga): Singer Maithili Thakur’s first test.

• 25 year old Maithili Thakur is contesting for the first time and BJP has played a big bet on her. This seat is Brahmin dominated (80-90%), but RJD’s Yadav-Muslim voters can prove to be decisive.
• Probable result: Close contest, Polstrat survey gives edge to Maithili.

8. Chhapra (Saran): Political debut seat of Khesari Lal Yadav.

• Bhojpuri superstar Khesari Lal Yadav (RJD) is entering politics for the first time. Despite being a traditional stronghold of RJD, for Khesari it is a test of ‘popularity versus politics’.
• Likely outcome: Close contest, but vote transfer could be a challenge.

9. Bettiah (West Champaran): Seat of prestige of Renu Devi

• Renu Devi (BJP) has won twice in a row, but Congress has fielded a strong contender this time. In 2020, he won by 18,079 votes.
• Possible result: BJP has a slight lead, but the atmosphere may flip.

10. Bhojpur and Champaran: Balance Zone of Bihar

• According to Axis My India, NDA has 42% vote share in Bhojpur and Grand Alliance has 40% vote share.
• In Champaran, NDA is at 44% and Grand Alliance is at 41%. The difference is only 2-3%, which means the results may hang till the last round.